Reducing
capital flight becomes a trend - experts say
In the second quarter of 2012, foreign capital outflows fell by almost four-fold - from $ 33.9 to $ 9.5 billion - The Central Bank of Russia reports. Experts attribute this to low oil prices and the devaluation of the ruble and the doubt that the decline in capital outflows become a long-term trend.
Devaluation of the ruble in June triggered the growth of banking operations in rubles to translate people's savings and businesses. This directly affected the inflows of foreign capital. Another one of the reasons is the low price of oil - exporters receive less foreign currency earnings and, consequently, less money is spent abroad.
But despite the positive trends of the second quarter, the outflow of the first half of 2012 is still high: in the same period last year, the export of capital was estimated at only $ 7.3 billion, while in the first half of this was exported $ 43.4 billion
In this regard, experts doubt that the decline in the rate of outflow of capital, as recorded in the second quarter of 2012, will be the long term trend, because the situation on the foreign exchange market and the price of oil could change that would entail a new wave of flight.
One of the measures that would help stem the outflow of capital - a better investment climate. But the improvements in this area has not yet been observed. "Structural analysis of the balance of payments is not a sign of change in base capital outflow, which is associated with the behavior of corporations - non-payment of foreign exchange earnings and the size of the item" errors and omissions "in the second quarter only increased," - said Alexander Morozov from HSBC.
Make predictions on the outflow of capital is very difficult to measure because it depends on many external macroeconomic factors - the director of Center for Structural Research, Institute for Economic Policy. Gaidar Alex Vedev. But experts still have suggested that the outflow for the year 2012 will remain at the same level as last year - $ 80 billion, and the Ministry of Economic Development expects the maximum rate of outflow of $ 25 billion
In the second quarter of 2012, foreign capital outflows fell by almost four-fold - from $ 33.9 to $ 9.5 billion - The Central Bank of Russia reports. Experts attribute this to low oil prices and the devaluation of the ruble and the doubt that the decline in capital outflows become a long-term trend.
Devaluation of the ruble in June triggered the growth of banking operations in rubles to translate people's savings and businesses. This directly affected the inflows of foreign capital. Another one of the reasons is the low price of oil - exporters receive less foreign currency earnings and, consequently, less money is spent abroad.
But despite the positive trends of the second quarter, the outflow of the first half of 2012 is still high: in the same period last year, the export of capital was estimated at only $ 7.3 billion, while in the first half of this was exported $ 43.4 billion
In this regard, experts doubt that the decline in the rate of outflow of capital, as recorded in the second quarter of 2012, will be the long term trend, because the situation on the foreign exchange market and the price of oil could change that would entail a new wave of flight.
One of the measures that would help stem the outflow of capital - a better investment climate. But the improvements in this area has not yet been observed. "Structural analysis of the balance of payments is not a sign of change in base capital outflow, which is associated with the behavior of corporations - non-payment of foreign exchange earnings and the size of the item" errors and omissions "in the second quarter only increased," - said Alexander Morozov from HSBC.
Make predictions on the outflow of capital is very difficult to measure because it depends on many external macroeconomic factors - the director of Center for Structural Research, Institute for Economic Policy. Gaidar Alex Vedev. But experts still have suggested that the outflow for the year 2012 will remain at the same level as last year - $ 80 billion, and the Ministry of Economic Development expects the maximum rate of outflow of $ 25 billion
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