Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Europe is cracking

Europe is cracking
European separatism: The Old World is bursting at the seams
 
Very hard to imagine a large apartment building, which would be all they lived in harmony. There are always reasons for recriminations and disagreements that keep residents trust each other and are pushing for new disputes and claims.
Sometimes even within the same family may have a situation. And it only gets worse, if the age-old resentments suddenly imposed problems that are somehow connected with the lack of money and the subsequent financial difficulties. Similarly, today's Europe stirs economic separatism - a phenomenon that undermines the integrity of the Old World.
Many countries in the European Union, made up of regions that differ from the rest of the state in language, culture and level of economic development. And for many centuries these territories showed separatist tendencies. Among such "hot spots" of Europe in the UK highlighted Scotland, Catalonia and the Basque country in Spain, Flanders in Belgium, and northern Italy. Separatist sentiment is still there in these regions, even in the first half of the 2000s., When the economy of Western Europe grew rapidly. Today, when Europe was swept over the financial crisis, the separatists of the Old World are using the circumstances to achieve the long-desired goal, that is, to form a new map of the state.
Oil path to independence for Scotland
There is no doubt that on 15 October 2012. has become one of the most important dates in the recent history of the UK. That same day, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom David Cameron and Scotland's First Minister Alex Salmond signed on in 2014. a referendum on Scottish independence. Thus, the Scottish nationalists embarked on her original dream "separatist dreams." "Do I believe that we will achieve independence? Yeah, I do. I think we'll get it, presenting a positive view of the future of our country - both economically and socially," - said Salmond after the signing of the fateful contract.
In an attempt to persuade the Scots to vote in a referendum for independence nationalists to focus on the fact that, coming from the UK, Scotland can independently dispose of the natural resources that today she has to share with the center. It first comes to oil and gas in the North Sea, which just extract the Scottish shelf. Economic independence from the British nationalists are hoping to support and by high-tech enterprises, located in the local "Silicon Valley." Still, the current situation in the UK in general and Scotland in particular, suggests that the words Salmond of faith in the independence of the northern-most part of Britain - more political self-confidence.
The main argument in favor of retaining the familiar device of Great Britain - the desire to remain part of the Scots themselves the United Kingdom. The very next day after the signing of the agreement of October survey conducted by a British newspaper, showed that 58% of Scots are against the independence of their country, while supporting 30% yield. And the number of opponents out of Scotland from the United Kingdom since the early years is increasing.
The second major obstacle to implementation of the plan nationalists looms just an economic issue. Although Salmond and hopes for a significant increase in the welfare of Scots at the outlet of the UK by the resources of the North Sea, to believe in it with difficulty. Yes, from 80% to 90% of the funding that the center receives due hydrocarbons will remain in the budget of Scotland. However, as a senior fellow at the Center for British Studies, Institute of Europe RAS Elena Anan, North Sea oil reserves will last only 40 years, and Britain without Scotland will be one on one with the vibrations of the oil market.
In the case of separation from the United Kingdom Edinburgh will have to take and pay a substantial part of the UK national debt (about 80 billion British pounds). Scotland also may have to do the privatization of troubled banks, which the British government nationalized after the crisis of 2008., Given that their share prices today fell by about half. In addition, potential oil revenues with no money in London are unlikely to cover the social costs the Scottish government, which on average 6% higher than in the rest of Britain.
Finally, out of Scotland from the UK raise the question of the European future of Edinburgh. Professor of the Graduate School of Economics Ivan Krivushin notes that the idea of ​​nationalists simple and attractive - Scotland should get rid of it unfavorable financial relations with London, but continue to enjoy the benefits of participation in the EU, primarily economic. At the same time, part of Scotland in the European Union as an independent state can turn to her obligations more burdensome than it has now. In addition, according to E.Ananevoy, Edinburgh is unlikely to hold and a high credit rating of the country, that is, to borrow it in the international market will become more expensive. Thus, the Scottish leadership is still very carefully consider whether to change the arrogant older sister to Britain to be ill and clumsy aunt Europe.
Rich and disgruntled Catalans and Basques
The situation in Spain is somewhat different from the UK. In southern European state separatists most actively manifest themselves in two of the most affluent regions - Catalonia, in the north-east of the country and the Basque Country in the north. The two territories for decades provided the economic prosperity of Spain, but the economic crisis with a new force raised the question of their future.
The main frustration Catalans, of which at least 500 thousand in September took to the streets of Barcelona with the requirements for greater autonomy from Madrid, is in the wrong, in their view, the distribution of finances. They believe that the central government in Madrid, taking tax revenue from Catalonia, not return them to the regional treasury in the proper amount. In Catalonia, say that every year, the local government pays taxes by 16 billion euros more than it spends. Catalans are tired sponsor the rest of the country, while the state of the local infrastructure is poor. And this despite the fact that the level of GDP per capita (30 thousand euros) Catalonia is in line with the rich countries like Britain or Austria. Economic hardship imposed on the centuries-old historical and linguistic dispute between the Catalans and the rest of Spain. People in the region, in particular, speak their particular language that has for generations oppressed by the Spanish authorities.
November 25 in Catalonia were extraordinary regional elections in which the party advocating separation of Catalonia from Spain, won nearly two-thirds of the seats in the local parliament. Long before the head of the Catalan Government Artur Mas promised that if they win they will hold a referendum on independence. Given the seriousness of the nationalists, as well as more than 50% of its support from the output of Catalonia Spain local people should think, under any flag in the near future will be the football club "Barcelona" and whether to continue the Spaniards call their artist Salvador Dali.
No less acute separatist sentiment prevails in the Basque Country - the richest, along with Madrid, the Spanish region. The share of exports of the most productive and industrialized area in the structure obscheispanskogo rate, despite the small population (only 4.5% of the population), is as much as 10%. In 2010. Basque GDP higher than the average level of GDP in the regions of Spain at 34%. As in Catalonia, the Basque discontent unfair participation in the financing of the backward parts of the country is superimposed on irreconcilable differences with Spain in the language, history, and even genetics (for example, over 50% of the Basques have a negative Rh factor, which significantly exceeds the average figure for Europe at 16% ). It is likely that after the triumph of Basque Nationalist Party in the October elections to the local parliament and the possible deterioration of the plight of the Spanish economy the issue of independence of the Basque Country will rise with new vigor.
North did not want to be a cash cow for the south
Chronic wound separatism and economic crisis has revealed in Belgium - a country divided into two parts: the south - Wallonia, with a predominantly French-speaking population, and the north - Flanders, where most people live niderlandogovoryaschie. Against the background of the critical state of the European finance more economically developed Flanders express increasing dissatisfaction due to the current mechanism of tax payments to the state budget. On average, the northern part of Belgium each year transfer to the state coffers by 16 billion euros more than the South. Integrity is at risk for another reason that more than half of the 11 million inhabitants live in Belgium is in Flanders.
At the meeting in Belgium in October local elections victory to the delight of the supporters of the status quo changes won Flemish nationalists who support the maximum independence of Flanders. Their leader, Bart De Wever, who after winning his party's mayor industrial center of Belgium - Antwerp, repeatedly noted the injustice of the existing system of finance in favor of redistribution of Wallonia. "Flemings tired that they are accepted for the cows, necessary only because of the milk they give," - said shortly before the election, de Wever. After the success in the elections, the leader of the "New Flemish Alliance" called on the Prime Minister Elio Di Rupo to revise the constitution to extend the autonomy of both parts of Belgium, with particular emphasis on financial independence from the central government of Flanders.
Italy, like Belgium, the cost is divided by the rich North and the poor South. And since the financial crisis has hit the country's economy, politics, northern Italy once again talking about the need to change, in their opinion, an unfair tax system of the state. The continuing desire to form a rich Italian north own state called Padania regularly keeps in suspense central authorities.
Separately, in Italy mature and other separatist movements that grows muscles because of economic problems. Among them is the largest political party in the region - Venetian League, which requires political and financial autonomy and recognition Venetic official language in the region. Recent efforts have also another part of the north of Italy - South Tyrol, who, on the crisis hit Italy suffered the least important. Separatists in the region with a predominance of the German population are campaigning for a referendum on secession from Italy and join the more prosperous Austria.
Is it worth it
Difficult situation in the world, especially Europe, the financial markets for a long time makes economic separatism, a feature of the modern world. According I.Krivushina, separatism in Europe today - a very attractive product, and nationalists, his offering, keeping pace with the times. Indeed, it is not surprising that the more affluent area want to own their own means.
In this case, following the advice of former Irish Prime Minister John Bruton, Scotland, Flanders and Catalonia would be wise if they first solved the problem of the economic crisis, and only then went back to the office or on boundary changes. Similar view E.Ananeva which warns that separatism for small areas is fraught with them slipping to a "non-viable states," since the crisis even resource-rich countries in trouble.
Any success at least one of the "troubled" regions in independence could lead to a chain of events that once and for all change the political map of the world. After becoming a free state, Catalonia, Scotland and Flanders will inevitably be faced with changing relations with the rest of Europe. And the situation is likely to arise in such a way that, by becoming independent from Spain, the UK and Belgium, these regions will fall in relation to other political entities, and they will have to make more concessions and more limited than it is today.

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